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A Look at California’s Future?

Is the bankruptcy in San Bernardino and Stockton a glance at what is forthcoming for the state of California?

Then there were three. This week, San Bernardino became the third California city to file for bankruptcy as a result of unrestrained government spending.  It was preceded by the cities of Vallejo and Stockton. What economists and other cities are wondering is if there is a pattern developing or if this was just a fluke.  If it was just a fluke, there is nothing to be worried about. On the other hand, if this is a glance into California’s future, we will be living in a real fiscal nightmare.

The usual suspects for this fiasco were rounded up to see if they had any part in this mess.  And as usual there was a lot of finger pointing going on.  Some of the suspects include more than generous public salaries, inadequately funded public pension funds, and health benefits both for present public employees and those who have retired. Another suspect is the decline in property values and the resulting loss of tax revenue. In addition, when unemployment soared, private spending slowed down and with it came a reduction in sales tax revenue. In short, there were many players in the perfect storm leading to bankruptcy.

These cities said “let the good times roll” assuming that tomorrow would be brighter than today. A new mantra that real estate always increases in value, and that employees can continue to expect wage increases, replaced the old adage of “what goes up must come down.” With the new mantra firmly ensconced, promises made by city planners cannot now be fulfilled. 

These cities ignored the warnings and did not make the necessary fiscal changes.  And now they are suffering for it. Will California be next?

California also has a stubborn debt problem that is not going away any time soon.  Cuts in the state budget are mostly based on accounting gimmicks, hidden fees, and delaying payments to cities and counties or “borrowing” money from dedicated funds like the gasoline tax. For example, taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel are to be used for road and bridge repair. To my “surprise,” a significant portion of these monies are transferred to the General Fund to help balance the budget. That is why I am not surprised that roads and other infrastructure languish in disrepair. Yet even with all the smoke and mirrors, Governor Brown is still telling us we need to raise taxes this fall. 

Our cities are microcosms of the state. The state continues to add burdens to an already woefully unfunded public pension fund. Public unions continue to hold an inordinate sway over financial decisions. And even with all the crocodile tears being shed for cutting the budget and raising taxes, suddenly there is plenty of money for an unwanted, unneeded, and unprofitable boondoggle train. So, it is understandable that cities copy many of the same errors of fiscal profligacy; they are simply following the state’s lead.

These bankruptcies are a wakeup call to the entire state. The fiscal methods presently being used are not working and instead are leading to financial ruin.  Returning to the sound policies of the past is a good place to start. Either we make a paradigm shift in the approach of government on both the state and local levels, or what we see in San Bernardino will be commonplace.

Mark Meuser is a candidate for State Senate District 7. You can follow him on Facebook.

Tom July 17, 2012 at 09:32 pm
CJ, I suggest we put aside some third rail issues (for now) such as abortion, gun rights etc and ONLY for the moment look at fiscal issues.
I dont know anyone that wants our public workers to not be given fair pay as they provide a valued service. I do suggest the current system is going to collapse and it is in everyones best interest to manage this.
Sam Clemens July 17, 2012 at 09:42 pm
c5...amen to all of what you say
Sam Clemens July 17, 2012 at 09:45 pm
The government, and those that feed off the government are insatiable. Whatever they get is never enough. It's human nature to want more. In the private sector, competition cuts off the endless spending and tolerance for waste. Government sector...not at all.
Only solution is small government, and much privitization as possible. and do our best to elect responsible adults (but that really won't work due to pov re human nature above)
Sam Clemens July 17, 2012 at 09:49 pm
Bankruptcy is the ONLY thing that reforms disfunctional systems like California, the auto industry, the steel industry, and yes...the US government.
the objective of the employees of the failing entities is to keep the music playing until the stern slips below the waves. And they scramble to get as close to the stern as possible. So embrace bankruptcy. It's the only cure.
Sam Clemens July 17, 2012 at 09:51 pm
Have you ever considered that embrasing the development of natural gas in USA will reduce the need for a military to protect the middle east.
Tom July 17, 2012 at 09:54 pm
Illegal immigration is worse that what you describe Chris. The burden to the prison, medical, school and many other systems is huge. I am sorry to say that the GOP is ALMOST as bad as the DNC on this issue but there can be no question where the state leaders fall on this issue. Look at in state tuition offers that:
Inflate the costs for all other Take a seat away from a legal student
Chris Kapsalis July 17, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Until legal Americans stop hiring, buying, using illigals, the situation will not improve. It is our fault. And yes both parties and citizens. We have used these people to build America, pick our food, since the days of building the railroads. Do our dirty work for next to nothing. Now we blame them for our problems?
John Harrington July 17, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Pension reform would be in my top 10. Actually #1. Why? because pensions are getting out of control and increasing amounts of tax money are being spent on "retirees" rather than current services. That's not a good thing.
John Harrington July 17, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Tom,
Well stated. The current system is not sustainable. Unfortunately, the ones who will suffer the most are public employees and retiree's of public agencies. Unless the pension system is fixed, there won't be one for either the current workforce or for the currently retired workforce. Fix it now when the "pain" is not too much, or fix it later when the "pain" will be severe (ask the Greeks).
Steve Cohn July 17, 2012 at 11:18 pm
I am big on facts but don't have the time to dig up the facts on this one. I can't believe that someone has not done a study of what these blood sucking immigrants (thank god my German / Scottish ancestors were natives) cost us vs. what they contribute. I hear that some of them are so stupid that they actually pay income taxes and we know they pay sales tax, gas tax, cigarette tax and some of the more egregious ones probably even pay property tax. (and the lesser such pay property tax indirectly through rents). Some probably pay social security and medicare tax but may never collect the benefits from these social programs. So what is the bottom line? Net minus or net plus? Anyone have real facts or are we happy to just work the "urban legend" line here?
c5 July 18, 2012 at 12:11 am
not to sound harsh, but i have no problem with the public sector workers--past, present and future, bearing this burden. after all, they have been the beneficiaries of sheer financial stupidity on the part of our government for a very long time. it is time that taxpayers have some representation in government. after all, it is the taxpayers who fund everything that goes in in state and local government. the problem is our elected representatives have been so busy handing out our money they forgot that their job is to ensure that we get to keep as much of our money as possible given the services that government must provide.
if you look at the actual stats it is pretty ugly...govt wages are high, benefits are way above the private sector, pensions are out of control, and yet productivity in the public sector is way below any measure in the private sector. plus for all the perceived budget cutting in the state, if you look at actual employment levels, there have been zero cuts in staffing and that is another problem that needs to be faced. say what you will about meg, her plan to cut 30k state workers was a good start imo...and now the job is just tougher all around as time is not on our side.
Sam Clemens July 18, 2012 at 12:25 am
How could pension reform, govt employee pay, size of govt not be top 5. What r u thinking?
X July 18, 2012 at 01:03 am
C5 - Not a trick question. Government shouldn't forcibly take money from taxpayers to fund education. Government schools are used by both the left & the right to promote their agendas. Government should exit the education field.
X July 18, 2012 at 01:10 am
Sure, Tom, you want to put aside abortion, but electing someone as radical as Mark Meuser isn't the way to do that. I don't doubt for a second that abortion is on his radar. Politicians don't focus on just one issue while in Sac, so Mark will have plenty of time to pursue the other items on his agenda. To think otherwise is naive or dishonest.
c5 July 18, 2012 at 10:07 am
electra, i for one do not forget about all of the other issues. however, for me it comes down to choice....do i want to have a really great abortion policy in a state that has declared bankruptcy, or do i want a state that is actually trying to reform its spending and entitlements with potentially a less attractive abortion policy...
for me, i do not care much about the social issues these days because if we don't fix the fiscal disaster the other issues really won't mean much.
Doug July 18, 2012 at 02:54 pm
CalPers recent 12-month return of 1% only makes the pension problem worse and heightens the needs for immediate pension and benefit reforms at the State level. State, County, City and other municipal pension plans are so significantly underfunded that it will be a fiscal drag on California for the next 10 years. Government entities made promises they cannot honor, and pension spiking has completely corrupted the system. Unions, which have significant control over CA fiscal policy, will fight pension reform to the death. There are cities in CA that promised pension benefits to workers after working 30 days on the job (ie: Stiockton). It is truly unfortunate that the Democrat Leadership in this State refuses to even discuss pension reform, but will cut education spending and fund a high speed rail project that will ultimately bankrupt this State. Raising taxes is not the answer to solving every problem that comes along. California used to be great State in which to live. Now it's ground zero for everything that is wrong with government tax and fiscal policy, not to mention the poor business environment created by regulatory and environmental laws that handicap CA companies.
WENDY LACK July 18, 2012 at 03:12 pm
Steven Greenhut sums it all up quite nicely:
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/07/12/union-efforts-failed-to-stop-bankruptcy-tsunami/
srl99 July 18, 2012 at 03:27 pm
CALPERS' expectation of multi-percent investment returns was optimistic, to be kind. Those "expecations" do, however, make the funded status of pensions look better.
WENDY LACK July 18, 2012 at 03:33 pm
WSJ commentary on CalPERS investment assumptions:
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702304388004577531293525264410-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwODExNDgyWj.html?mod=wsj_valettop_email
X July 18, 2012 at 06:56 pm
c5 - It doesn't have to be an either-or. We can have social and fiscal policies. Meuser's counting on folks like yourself who don't appreciate the freedoms they have. Well played.
DC July 18, 2012 at 07:00 pm
A state bank? With what money? Who would trust it? And what idiots would entrust California with their money?
That is the DUMBEST idea I've heard yet in regards to fixing this problem. Wow.
DC July 18, 2012 at 09:57 pm
@Chris: That's right, blame your credit collapse on the president and governor - not on yourself. That is exactly the problem with democrats - it is always someone else's fault, and can only be fixed with someone else's money.
The *sole* reason the country is in this mess is because people spent more than they had. And now that the money has run out you'd rather take it from people that *earned* it. It didn't work the first time when you stole it and didn't pay it back - why should you get any more? If you don't pay your obligations when borrowing, you are stealing. You're in luck at the moment, though, because *your* President is an f'ing thief and so you've got some cover. Not for long, though. It is time to grow up and take responsibility for your successes AND failures. No political party will save you from yourself.
Sam Clemens July 18, 2012 at 11:07 pm
"Only when the money runs out will cities find the necessary solutions. That’s perhaps the saddest commentary on the situation in California cities these days."
This is really true. Bankruptcy cleanses the system of waste and low value activity. Auto's, Steel, Airlines. It's givernment's time, and it's none too soon.
Steve Cohn July 18, 2012 at 11:23 pm
I just attempted to upload a chart showing CCCERA's (the county's pension plan) annual return on their assets for the past 10 years. The answer, 4.77% (I did a compounded ten year return for them and it is more like 4.9%). However, they are still projecting 7.75% for the future. At what point do they say "we should be making conservative assumptions even if those assumptions show that we are waaayyy underfunded and need to put millions more per year into the system so what we promised to pay our employees we will actually pay"?
Sam Clemens July 18, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Steve Cohn
We ain't gonna pay what was promised. Sorry there are no guarantees in life. Govt employees bought into a failed enterprise, it's going down as are their pensions.
Steve Cohn July 18, 2012 at 11:45 pm
The courts might disagree. MOFD has $18 million in revenues and four times the firefighters per capita as adjoining ConFire. They might not be considered "indigent" by a bankruptcy court. Past promises weigh heavy when compared to current spending on things like brick sidewalks and multimillion dollar libraries and even super smooth streets. I'm not saying I disagree with you going forward but the people we elected to represent us gave away all these goodies in our name with our blessings and many of them are still in office.
Chris Kapsalis July 19, 2012 at 12:00 am
@DC. I am not sure where you got all that from, but it was not me. I did pay all my bills and on time. I do not want to be bailed out, paid all my due taxes my whole life and want no money from anyone. You have no clue about me, no clue about a whole lot imo, and I am finished with you personally. Not worthy of my time. If you knew the facts about me you would feel pretty stupid right now.
Sam Clemens July 19, 2012 at 12:17 am
Steve Cohn
Let these communities spend whatever they get any way they want. If they make choices that increase their revenue great, if there revenue falls they have less to spend. Either way we taxpayers should do all we can to stifle and shrink the revenue stream. Starve the cancer.
Thisisnot A. Pipe July 19, 2012 at 03:12 am
Why is No One talking about the economic havoc Redevelopment Agencies brought upon this State? The money went not to public employees--but flowed like champagne to developers, council people, consultants. The State is not Enron that it should raid pensions. So, should we become a 3rd world country with the resources all on the top tier and the middle class gone? That's the worst thing you could do to a Democracy.
Sam Clemens July 19, 2012 at 10:29 am
To: This is not a pope
Fraudently awarded pensions should be clawed back. Taxpayers need not make good on pension payoffs for political contributions. Creating a middle class from fraud should not be acceptable. A middle class created based on market determined economic worth is a middle class with a foundation.

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